Don’t mention the oil – Howard and Rudd avoid the burning issue of our time

Don’t mention the oil
Howard and Rudd avoid the burning issue of our time

10 November 2007

Oil has bumped $US100 a barrel. Right. That’s $US40 more than it was at the beginning of the year. Supplies of crude are getting tighter and tighter and competition for them more intense. If the situation from Pakistan to Palestine continues to deteriorate it’ll quickly go to $120 a barrel. If Bush tries to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age it could go anywhere.

Pretty soon, petrol will cost as much in Sydney as it did in the middle of the Nullabor a couple of years ago, but you won’t hear much debate about that grim fact from Liberal or Labor.

On the face of it you’d think Labor would be out there explaining their policies for the crisis and flogging the Howard Government for leaving Australia at the mercy of price inflation, swelling import bills and widespread social dislocation, but they, too would rather not talk about it. Most Labor politicians would rather not even think about it.

Welcome to the crisis that’ll dominate the 21st Century. This is peak oil, folks, and in all likelihood the peak happened late in 2005 or early 2006 (it’s something that can only be known in retrospect). From here on, it’s downhill all the way and none of the infrastructure for any alternative to the oil economy is in place – in fact, realistically it’s a couple of decades into the future, if we’re lucky, and whatever it is will be very expensive indeed.

The tragedy is that technocrats and scientific people (as opposed to politicians and economists) have been sounding the alarm on oil depletion for over a decade.

Brian J Fleay’s The Decline of the Age of Oil, a lucid popular explanation and the first Australian book on the subject, came out in December 1995. Fleay toured Australian capital cities to promote the book, but the media virtually ignored him and mainstream politicians treated him as if he was a nutcase.

Also in 1995, the highly respected Geneva-based Petroconsultants group produced a four-volume report: The World’s Oil Supply, 1930 – 2050, by Colin J Campbell and Jean H Leherrere, two veteran petroleum geologists. Admittedly, this document would have set you back $32,000, but if you just wanted a summary of the argument and evidence, you could have bought Volume I for a thousand bucks, and that surely was not beyond the reach of any responsible government department or minister.

In August 1996, this possum’s publishing house, Predawn Publications, produced a bootleg edition of key selected passages of the Petroconsultants report. It was widely circulated to mainstream journalists and politicians, but it was like pissing off North Head.

Today, the Petroconsultant’s report makes poignant reading:

It is probably unrealistic to expect any government to make serious provisions for the future, when all their experience has been in an epoch of growth fuelled by cheap oil. Most are dedicated to nothing else but growth at any price … Today, few have even the haziest idea of the constraints to oil supply, believing it to be as much a part of nature as the rivers that flow from the mountains to the sea. It is hoped that this report may be a small contribution to remedy that misconception.

Eleven years later, when the downturn has already happened, the political mainstream is still not confronting reality.

From these early attempts to raise the alarm the discussion of peak oil and its implications continued, but only in the fringe independent media and on the web. It’s fair to say that, down through the years, there have been more serious stories on peak oil in the City Hub, than the Sydney Morning Herald. Only over the last few months, very occasionally, has peak oil has got a passing mention in the mainstream media.

The state of denial has cost society dearly. A whole decade has been lost. Tough decisions about industry, agriculture and new public transport infrastructure that should have been made around the time that Howard came into office are still being evaded. That’s a whole decade that Labor had in opposition – time they could have used to popularise the problem and real alternative policies, but, of course, they didn’t.

Even now, politicians of both major parties continue to promise billions for new freeways, but little or nothing for rail and public transport.

The masses, meanwhile, are feeling the pinch from rising petrol prices and they’re voting with their feet. Over the last year there has been an extraordinary jump in Cityrail passenger numbers. Sydneysiders took 10 million more trips on the rail network. Passenger trips on the Illawarra line rose by 973,000, or 3.8 per cent, and on the East Hills-Airport line by 766,000, an astonishing 7.5 per cent. Any private business that saw a surge of custom like that would be moving frantically to meet it, but not our politicians – they’re planning more tollways.

Use your brain Morris, take the train
Oil’s inexorable decline must drive Sydney public transport reforms

By MATT MUSHALIK and GAVIN GATENBY

29 September 2005
Possum News Network

History will record that the Carr Government’s greatest failure was that it squandered the opportunity to make timely preparations for “peak oil”. Few Australians are familiar with this phenomena, but its ramifications will seep into every aspect of political and social life in the coming years.

For a whole decade state cabinet ignored a sincere and increasingly strident warning from oil industry experts: the maximum possible level of world oil production was imminent and would be followed by inexorable decline. It remains to be seen whether the Iemma cabinet will face the issue squarely or remain in denial. ...

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We've been online since 1997. Check out the archives or … powered by FreeFind © Nick Possum/ Brushtail Graphics	Don’t mention the oil Howard and Rudd avoid the burning issue of our time 10 November 2007 Oil has bumped $US100 a barrel. Right. That’s $US40 more than it was at the beginning of the year. Supplies of crude are getting tighter and tighter and competition for them more intense. If the situation from Pakistan to Palestine continues to deteriorate it’ll quickly go to $120 a barrel. If Bush tries to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age it could go anywhere. Pretty soon, petrol will cost as much in Sydney as it did in the middle of the Nullabor a couple of years ago, but you won’t hear much debate about that grim fact from Liberal or Labor. On the face of it you’d think Labor would be out there explaining their policies for the crisis and flogging the Howard Government for leaving Australia at the mercy of price inflation, swelling import bills and widespread social dislocation, but they, too would rather not talk about it. Most Labor politicians would rather not even think about it. Welcome to the crisis that’ll dominate the 21st Century. This is peak oil, folks, and in all likelihood the peak happened late in 2005 or early 2006 (it’s something that can only be known in retrospect). From here on, it’s downhill all the way and none of the infrastructure for any alternative to the oil economy is in place – in fact, realistically it’s a couple of decades into the future, if we’re lucky, and whatever it is will be very expensive indeed. The tragedy is that technocrats and scientific people (as opposed to politicians and economists) have been sounding the alarm on oil depletion for over a decade. Brian J Fleay’s The Decline of the Age of Oil, a lucid popular explanation and the first Australian book on the subject, came out in December 1995. Fleay toured Australian capital cities to promote the book, but the media virtually ignored him and mainstream politicians treated him as if he was a nutcase. Also in 1995, the highly respected Geneva-based Petroconsultants group produced a four-volume report: The World’s Oil Supply, 1930 – 2050, by Colin J Campbell and Jean H Leherrere, two veteran petroleum geologists. Admittedly, this document would have set you back $32,000, but if you just wanted a summary of the argument and evidence, you could have bought Volume I for a thousand bucks, and that surely was not beyond the reach of any responsible government department or minister. In August 1996, this possum’s publishing house, Predawn Publications, produced a bootleg edition of key selected passages of the Petroconsultants report. It was widely circulated to mainstream journalists and politicians, but it was like pissing off North Head. Today, the Petroconsultant’s report makes poignant reading: It is probably unrealistic to expect any government to make serious provisions for the future, when all their experience has been in an epoch of growth fuelled by cheap oil. Most are dedicated to nothing else but growth at any price … Today, few have even the haziest idea of the constraints to oil supply, believing it to be as much a part of nature as the rivers that flow from the mountains to the sea. It is hoped that this report may be a small contribution to remedy that misconception. Eleven years later, when the downturn has already happened, the political mainstream is still not confronting reality. From these early attempts to raise the alarm the discussion of peak oil and its implications continued, but only in the fringe independent media and on the web. It’s fair to say that, down through the years, there have been more serious stories on peak oil in the City Hub, than the Sydney Morning Herald. Only over the last few months, very occasionally, has peak oil has got a passing mention in the mainstream media. The state of denial has cost society dearly. A whole decade has been lost. Tough decisions about industry, agriculture and new public transport infrastructure that should have been made around the time that Howard came into office are still being evaded. That’s a whole decade that Labor had in opposition – time they could have used to popularise the problem and real alternative policies, but, of course, they didn’t. Even now, politicians of both major parties continue to promise billions for new freeways, but little or nothing for rail and public transport. The masses, meanwhile, are feeling the pinch from rising petrol prices and they’re voting with their feet. Over the last year there has been an extraordinary jump in Cityrail passenger numbers. Sydneysiders took 10 million more trips on the rail network. Passenger trips on the Illawarra line rose by 973,000, or 3.8 per cent, and on the East Hills-Airport line by 766,000, an astonishing 7.5 per cent. Any private business that saw a surge of custom like that would be moving frantically to meet it, but not our politicians – they’re planning more tollways. Use your brain Morris, take the train Oil’s inexorable decline must drive Sydney public transport reforms By MATT MUSHALIK and GAVIN GATENBY 29 September 2005 Possum News Network History will record that the Carr Government’s greatest failure was that it squandered the opportunity to make timely preparations for “peak oil”. Few Australians are familiar with this phenomena, but its ramifications will seep into every aspect of political and social life in the coming years. For a whole decade state cabinet ignored a sincere and increasingly strident warning from oil industry experts: the maximum possible level of world oil production was imminent and would be followed by inexorable decline. It remains to be seen whether the Iemma cabinet will face the issue squarely or remain in denial. ...